SWODY1
SPC AC 171943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SERN TX...
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS LOCATED BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...ACCOMPANYING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING EWD ACROSS TX
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. EARLY AFTERNOON IR CLOUD IMAGERY
INDICATED A FEW COLDER CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SE
TX WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. IN
THESE LOCATIONS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE GREATER PER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE
HEATING.
THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE TO FOCUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...SUGGESTS WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA
OF CLOUDINESS WITH ATTENDANT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOIST RETURN FLOW SHOULD AID IN FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION NNEWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX TO LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING
WITH HEIGHT...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT
FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
.PETERS.. 11/17/2007
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