SWODY1
SPC AC 191300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST MON NOV 19 2007
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH NOW APPROACHING VANCOUVER IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY/BROADEN ESE
INTO THE NWRN U.S./NRN RCKYS THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE LWR MS AND OH VLYS. AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT
WITH NWRN SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ERN EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT...SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING WRN
ONTARIO...SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN AS MOVES S INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. A
N/S WARM FRONT WITH THE ONTARIO TROUGH WILL MOVE E UP THE OH VLY.
..PAC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
STRONG MID/UPR LVL COOLING WITH AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL STEEPEN
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN POST-FRONTAL AIR ACROSS THE PAC NW AND NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD WEAK CONVECTION AS TT VALUES INCREASE TO AOA 50.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING AS FAR E
AS ID/SWRN MT/WRN WY. THE GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL
WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WA/NRN ORE
CST...WHERE STRONGEST MOIST UPSLOPE WILL EXIST UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY.
..DEEP S TX...
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD OVERNIGHT FROM NERN MEXICO INTO THE NWRN
GULF...IN MODEST BUT DEEP SWLY CURRENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM
LOW OVER THE MEXICAN W CST. GIVEN SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ OVER DEEP S TX AND THE
ADJACENT CSTL WATERS...AND ABSENCE OF A CAP...SETUP LIKELY WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CLUSTERS OF STORMS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WIND FIELDS WILL ALL REMAIN
WEAK...THUS SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
..SRN GREAT LAKES INTO OH VLY/SRN APLCNS...
AREA OF MID LVL INSTABILITY/ISOLD THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
IMPULSE MOVING INTO LARGER SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC CST
THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AS FEATURE CONTINUES ESEWD. IN WAKE OF
THIS IMPULSE...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL DEVELOP NWD
INTO THE UPR OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS AS ONTARIO TROUGH CONTINUES E.
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 850
MB. THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCTD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SHALLOW...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD YIELD
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/19/2007
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