SWODY1
SPC AC 291621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST THU NOV 29 2007
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME EXISTS OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM THE
APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND...AND ANOTHER MOVING SEWD OVER THE PAC
NW COAST. A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE CP AIR MASS COVERS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING S TX AND CENTRAL/S FL.
HERE...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ORE COAST TODAY
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES SEWD OVER THE AREA. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AOB -30 C WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
LOW-MID LEVELS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR AND W OF THE COASTAL RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE
ORE COAST...WHERE WEAK SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
.THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/29/2007
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