SWODY1
SPC AC 061940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY 06/21-22Z...
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE 07/00-03Z TIME FRAME. IN
ITS WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL DEPTH
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF WARMER LAKE
WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR LOWER
THRESHOLD OF CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL DIMINISH FURTHER.
..ATLANTIC COAST...
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES A FEW POSSIBLE CLOUD
TO GROUND STRIKES WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL MAINE...
IN AN ELEVATED LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...NORTH OF WARM FRONT
..AND EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED AREAS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...NEAR THE
GULF STREAM...EAST OF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
MID EVENING.
.KERR.. 11/06/2007
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