SWODY1
SPC AC 121625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST MON NOV 12 2007
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MODEL GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX AND EASTERN OK INTO MO/IL. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THIS REGION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION
SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL OF SMALL HAIL OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF RISK AREA. HOWEVER... RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK
INTO SOUTHWEST MO. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING WILL HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS LIKELY
TO WEAKEN THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL ALONG
COLD FRONT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER TODAY.
.HART/JEWELL.. 11/12/2007
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