Saturday, November 24, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC...UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
TRACK OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING
GENERALLY NNEWD FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER TO E-CNTRL LA
BY 26/00Z AND WRN KY BY 26/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH ERN LA AND MS INTO WRN AL BY MONDAY MORNING.

..LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NNEWD
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE A RAPID INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH LA AND MS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S...NAMELY S OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT THE NEWD EXPANSION OF SYSTEM WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN A N-S AXIS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST /6.5-7.0 C PER KM/ WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO AOB 500 J/KG OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.

TSTMS /MOSTLY ELEVATED/ WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME TO THE N OF
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR EXPANDS N/NEWD
INLAND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR INDICATE THAT BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST S OF I-20 ACROSS
S-CNTRL/SERN LA AND SRN MS WHERE A MOIST...UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COEXIST WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING
THROUGH MS INTO WRN AL.

.MEAD.. 11/24/2007

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