Friday, November 16, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161732
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

UPPER LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND TX
SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NOW OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR TO RETURN NWD THROUGH SRN AND SERN TX. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO LOW TO
MID 60S A BIT FARTHER INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NWD ADVECTION
OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ATTENDING THE EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF
CLOUDS COULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG...EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER FORECAST. HOWEVER...SLY TO SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY
AND INCREASING TO 40 KT AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN 35 TO 40 KT DEEP
SHEAR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND SERN TX AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND AS MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

.DIAL.. 11/16/2007

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