Sunday, November 25, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251734
SWODY2
SPC AC 251732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SW GA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR
ERN SC...

..LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL OPEN AND LIFT ENEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. MODELS FORECAST A WELL-DEVELOPED REAR INFLOW JET BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A SQUALL-LINE ACROSS
SRN AL EXTENDING SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA
DURING THE MORNING. 15Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
IN THE FL PANHANDLE SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 850 MB
WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO WEAKEN THE REAR INFLOW
JET AROUND MIDDAY SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH
TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..ERN CAROLINAS...
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS AN OPEN WAVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE REGION LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE
INLAND ACROSS ERN NC WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. LIFT
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET INFLUENCES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING BY EVENING AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ORGANIZES FURTHER WEST. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS ERN NC EARLY MONDAY EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS
SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY TORNADO THREAT ISOLATED.

.BROYLES.. 11/25/2007

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