Wednesday, November 7, 2007

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071712
SWODY2
SPC AC 071710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST AREAS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC
JET IS PROGGED TO NOSE TOWARD PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...AND A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE....INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN OREGON/WASHINGTON
CASCADES. AS THIS OCCURS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY ENHANCE LIFT
ALONG AN INLAND ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. AND...THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
THOUGH...SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY NOT STEEPEN
SUBSTANTIALLY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MEETING MINIMUM
10% PROBABILITY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
DEVELOPING CAPE...WITHIN FAVORABLY COLD MID-LEVELS FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION...COULD YIELD AN OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE.

.KERR.. 11/07/2007

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