SWODY2
SPC AC 301726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD UPR TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PAC COAST TODAY WILL TURN EWD
INTO THE GRT BASIN/DESERT SW REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM
UPR LOW OFF BAJA WILL CONSEQUENTLY EJECT NEWD...REACHING THE DESERT
SW TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LWR LVLS...A LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER NERN CO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN TRACK NEWD INTO IA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TRAILING THE
LOW...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN A SWD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE
CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING A NWRN MO...NWRN OK...NERN NM LINE BY
12Z SUNDAY.
..CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY...
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SPORADIC TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOW-MID MO VLY INTO THE CORN BELT REGION AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE SPREAD EWD ATOP THE
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS. THIS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR LATER SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. ISOLD TSTMS MAY ALSO FORM FARTHER SE ACROSS ERN KS
INTO MO WITHIN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE PROBABLY SCOURING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE AIR MASS TOO
VIGOROUSLY. THUS...DESPITE STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND THREATS FOR DMGG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED.
OTHERWISE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AND SVR HAIL IS
ALSO NOT LIKELY.
.RACY.. 11/30/2007
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