SWODY2
SPC AC 121720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST MON NOV 12 2007
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NATION THIS PERIOD.
SRN PORTION OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS SWWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH
THE MID MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES TUESDAY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO
THE OH VALLEY...LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
..SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SERN STATES...
AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE TN VALLEY SWWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. SCATTERED MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SOME WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT ATTENDING THE SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. A BELT OF 40-45 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP
SHEAR WILL ATTEND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AND THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
.DIAL.. 11/12/2007
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