SWOD48
SPC AC 050904
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CST MON NOV 05 2007
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OUT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL STATES DEVELOPING A ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE ERN U.S. EARLY IN THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD WITH A
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LEE
TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN PLAINS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT AND
SOME COULD BECOME ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH REMAINS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND AN OUTLOOK AREA CAN NOT
BE FORECAST ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 11/05/2007
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