SWOD48
SPC AC 060859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEAMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE WITH TWO MARKEDLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE GFS DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL STATES. WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE
SRN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PROXIMITY TO GULF OF MEXICO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CAN NOT OUTLOOK AN
AREA ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 11/06/2007
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