SWOD48
SPC AC 110915
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
..DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG JET STREAM NOW OVER THE N PAC BASIN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY BY THURSDAY 15 NOV. A FRESH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
SURGE SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...REINFORCING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL GULF BASIN AND FL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...STUBBORN NWRN MEXICO UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
EJECT EWD REACHING TX BY FRI 16 NOV BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD LATE NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NCEP-GEFS MEMBERS OFFER MODEST UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM . WHATEVER THE CASE...PRIND THAT MOISTURE
FIELDS WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING THE WEEK ALONG THE WRN
GULF COASTAL AREA OWING TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE DRY OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM THE SERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT...AN
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SVR WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY
ACROSS TX OR THE GULF COAST AND A MEDIUM RANGE SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.
.RACY.. 11/11/2007
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