SWOD48
SPC AC 200951
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 6 THIS
FORECAST...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SWRN U.S. BY THE START OF DAY 5 /SAT. NOV. 24/. MODELS SHOW
THIS LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5...WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ON DAY 6 /SUN. NOV. 26/...BOTH MODELS BRING THIS LOW -- AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOIST WARM SECTOR -- NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE SPREAD OF
THE WARM SECTOR NOW DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS
SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER DAY 6...SO
WILL NOT EXTEND THE RISK AREA EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FOR
DAY 7.
.GOSS.. 11/20/2007
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