SWOD48
SPC AC 210957
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST WED NOV 21 2007
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION SUN. NOV. 25 /I.E. DAY 5/. THE ECMWF AND GFS
DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW EJECTING
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THUS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MOIST GULF WARM SECTOR SHOULD
WORK ONSHORE DURING THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD FROM THE
WRN GULF. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. IN ADVANCE
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED BUT
POSSIBLY HIGHER-END SEVERE EVENT.
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST FURTHER E INTO THE SOUTHEAST DAY
6...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY -- REMAINS LOW. BEYOND DAY 6...MODELS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THUS WILL ONLY OUTLOOK A THREAT AREA FOR
DAY 5 ATTM.
.GOSS.. 11/21/2007
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