Sunday, November 25, 2007

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250816
SWOD48
SPC AC 250815

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON DAY 4 /WED NOV
28/ AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 5 /THU NOV
29/. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED DUE TO PREVIOUS FRONTAL
INTRUSION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE IS EXPECTED.

THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION IN DEPICTING THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY 8 /SUN DEC
2/ WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF AND
UKMET SUGGEST A LESS PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO WITH A MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER CO
VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN EITHER CASE...CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.MEAD.. 11/25/2007

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