SWOD48
SPC AC 280752
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CST WED NOV 28 2007
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE WRN
STATES ON DAY 4 /SAT DEC 1ST/ THROUGH THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION
AND INTO THE ERN STATES THROUGH DAY 5 /SUN DEC 2ND/. THEREAFTER...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH...ANCHORED BY DEEP VORTEX OVER SERN
CANADA/THE NERN STATES...WILL EVOLVE OVER THE ERN U.S. INTO WRN
ATLANTIC BEFORE WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAY 4/5 UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO SERN CANADA. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST
STATES.
WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
INCREASE INVOF COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO GULF COAST
STATES...BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.
CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST ON DAY 5 FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
AREA WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED ATTM.
.MEAD.. 11/28/2007
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