SWOD48
SPC AC 300949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST FRI NOV 30 2007
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF
AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO BROADEN AND EXPAND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...TO THE SOUTH OF A RETROGRADING
POLAR VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. AFTER A COLD INTRUSION
INITIALLY STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF BY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BY THAT
TIME FRAME...HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS GROWS QUITE
LARGE CONCERNING STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES TO THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GULF STATES.
.KERR.. 11/30/2007
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