SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051604
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 AM CST MON NOV 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LOWER OH VALLEY SWD INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051604Z - 051700Z
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM FAR
SRN IL EWD THROUGH WRN/CENTRAL KY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL...SOME SEVERE...REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY.
TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM
SRN IL EWD INTO WRN KY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION
ARE AIDING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION ALONG NOSE OF WSWLY LLJ FOR
ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM LM SWWD THROUGH IL TO CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL OK.
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS
PROGRESSIVE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE RETURN INTO LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5-7.0 C/KM/ DUE
TO LACK OF STRONGER MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THIS REGION
REMAINS S OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY TODAY. DESPITE THIS FACTOR...WAA AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT THIS MORNING SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL.
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AS BOTH THE
LLJ AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SURFACE
HEATING RESULTS IN POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE
BASED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN TN/NERN AR PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WHERE HEATING WILL BE THE STRONGEST TO WEAKEN THE CINH.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...PART OF MID SOUTH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK.
.PETERS.. 11/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
35739181 37338987 38078754 38638501 38008420 36718490
35698680 34498836 34689109
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