Wednesday, November 14, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2143

ACUS11 KWNS 141956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141956
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-142100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AR/NRN MS/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141956Z - 142100Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR ERN AR TO NWRN
AL/PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL OH SWWD THROUGH SWRN KY/FAR WRN TN TO CENTRAL AR. REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN INSTABILITY/ MOISTURE AXIS
EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH ERN AR/NRN MS INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL.
WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 40 KT SUGGEST
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA FROM SERN AR
THROUGH NRN MS IS LOCATED S OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT NOW
SPREADING E ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN.
THUS...DESPITE GREATER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THIS AREA...
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE

.PETERS.. 11/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34659148 35099130 35579055 36038925 36198801 36038661
35568647 34888677 34048778 33668907 33459081 33579142
33989152

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