Saturday, November 17, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2146

ACUS11 KWNS 180057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180056
TXZ000-180300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SAT NOV 17 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 180056Z - 180300Z

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING.
RECENT SFC DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK WARM FRONT OR MOISTURE SURGE HAS
RETURNED WELL INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NOW
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP CLEARLY SAMPLES
THIS AIRMASS WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED JUST EAST OF SAT. ONE MAJOR IMPEDIMENT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION IS THE RELATIVELY
WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY ROTATE AT TIMES...THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ULTIMATELY
HINDER ANY MEANINGFUL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL OR TORNADO THREAT.
EVEN SO...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION SHIFTING EAST TOWARD THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA LATER THIS EVENING.

.DARROW.. 11/18/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

29199792 30429689 30009577 29279507 28289769

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