Sunday, December 2, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021249
SWODY1
SPC AC 021246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SUN DEC 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES...WITH ONE STRONG UPPER TROUGH RACING ACROSS NM INTO
WEST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
THIS EVENING AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS...STRENGTH
OF WIND FIELDS AND FORCING SUGGEST SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL
OK. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY TODAY...AND THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS TONIGHT. VERY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO REGION
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH
AS SOUTHERN IL/IND AND WESTERN KY BY 03/00Z. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER THIS REGION SHOW NEAR MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 250 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...850MB WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF MO/AR ACROSS
THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FAST-MOVING LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
POSE AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR GREATER HEATING/INSTABILITY
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.HART.. 12/02/2007

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