SWODY1
SPC AC 101257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. NRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW CROSSING THE NRN RCKYS EXPECTED TO DROP S ACROSS THE GRT BASIN
AND REACH SRN NV BY 12Z TUESDAY AS LOW NOW NEAR THE BAJA SPUR EJECTS
NE INTO NM. DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE UPR MS VLY/GRT LKS...AS BROAD/VERY WARM RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE GULF/WRN ATLANTIC.
DEEP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY FROM THE MID-ATLC
CST WSW INTO THE LWR OH VLY...AND THEN SW INTO THE SRN PLNS. AT THE
SFC...ERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP A LITTLE S IN RESPONSE TO
WAVE EXITING THE DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY... WHILE WRN PART EDGES
N WITH STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH.
THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SPORADIC TSTM CLUSTERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..SRN PLNS TO CNTRL APLCNS...
BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING FROM CNTRL/ERN OK ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY AS MOIST
WSWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON DEEP FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH
NARROWING PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN BY AFTN AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND REDEVELOPS E TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC CST.
FARTHER SW...NEW TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS W
TX. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD N/NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN/NRN OK THIS AFTN...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOPS NE INTO CNTRL AND ERN KS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
THE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH BACKING/
STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH. STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY CLOUD-LYR SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS INTO BANDS/BACK-BUILDING LINES. LIMITED DEGREE OF ELEVATED
CAPE /AOB 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR SVR WX. BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING ABOVE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS COULD
YIELD SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK AND
CNTRL/ERN KS...AND HEAVY RAIN IN WRN AND SW TX LATE TODAY THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY.
..SWRN U.S...
IMPULSE EJECTING NE ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE SWRN STATES WILL
ENHANCE MID LVL COLD ADVECTION/ASCENT. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER S CNTRL
AZ WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COEXIST WITH UVV IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A
100+ KT H5 JET. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPR SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.
.CORFIDI.. 12/10/2007
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