SWODY1
SPC AC 201629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL
GULF COASTAL REGION...
..THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
AT MID MORNING...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR SWWD
INTO FAR SWRN LA...AND WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NERN GULF COAST REGION
TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...A MEOSLOW WAS
LOCATED IN SERN MS...WITH A TRAILING BOUNDARY/CONVECTION EXTENDING
SWWD INTO FAR SWRN LA. DESPITE RICHER BOUNDARY LATER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE WEST OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONGER FORCING AND 50-60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS CONVECTION. THE PRESENCE OF THE EWD
MOVING MESOLOW AND 1 KM SHEAR AT 30KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN MS/SRN LA
AND SWRN AL AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD INTO AR/LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...CURRENT THINKING IS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT STRONG CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT.
.IMY.. 12/20/2007
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