Wednesday, December 19, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200040
SWODY1
SPC AC 200038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EAST TX AND MUCH OF
LA...

..EAST TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS NERN MEXICO
INTO SOUTH TX...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM LATE AFTERNOON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. IN RESPONSE TO ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION AFTER DARK. RESULTANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NOTED UPSTREAM AT BOTH DRT AND CRP.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE UPPER TX COAST
INTO CNTRL LA HAS STRUGGLED...MOST LIKELY DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND
SOMEWHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY...AS NOTED AT BOTH SHV AND LCH. WITH
TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT IN
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH
THE 60S...NWD ALONG AN AXIS NEAR THE SABINE RIVER. GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...ROBUST UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT COULD CERTAINLY OBTAIN SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DARROW.. 12/20/2007

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