SWODY1
SPC AC 311210
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE BOUNDARY RESIDING OVER NRN FL EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AFTER SLIDING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY. DESPITE
WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PEN...MODEST SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A
RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING INHIBITION MAY
SUPPORT A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
..OH VALLEY...
A STRONG SPEED MAX ATTENDANT TO CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG TRACK OF ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW/SHARP FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING
TO WRN PA LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUITE COLD...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE SPARSE...DUE MOSTLY TO
SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
.EVANS/PETERS.. 12/31/2007
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