SWODY1
SPC AC 101553
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN PLNS TO CNTRL APLCNS...
BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN OK ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY AS MOIST WSWLY
LLJ CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON DEEP FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH NARROWING
PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. THE STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN BY AFTN AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND REDEVELOPS E TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC CST.
FARTHER SW...NEW TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS W TX THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD N/NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN/NRN
OK THIS AFTN...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOPS NE INTO CNTRL/ERN KS AND NWRN MO TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. THE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH.
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY CLOUD-LYR SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO BANDS/BACK-BUILDING LINES. LIMITED
DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE /AOB 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR
SVR WX. BUT POTENTIAL FOR ECHO TRAINING ABOVE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASS COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK
AND CNTRL/ERN KS...AND HEAVY RAIN IN WRN AND SW TX LATE TODAY
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
..SWRN U.S...
IMPULSE EJECTING NE ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE SWRN STATES WILL
ENHANCE MID LVL COLD ADVECTION/ASCENT. A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER S CNTRL
AZ WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COEXIST WITH UVV IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A
100+ KT H5 JET. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPR SYSTEM AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN.
.EVANS/CORFIDI.. 12/10/2007
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