SWODY1
SPC AC 081627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2007
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH MOST PROMINENT REGION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
..SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...
RETURN FLOW SETUP WILL REMAIN PRONOUNCED OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN AND
MOST OF SRN/ERN TX TODAY IN ADVANCE OF WRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH.
12Z MODELS MAINTAIN INCREASE IN SSWLY H85 JET ACROSS NRN TX INTO
CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE DEEP ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ATOP MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ENTRENCHED
OVER THE REGION BEHIND SURFACE COLD FRONT. APPEARS MUCAPE MAY
APPROACH 500 J/KG BASED AROUND H85 FROM PARTS OF NRN TX TOWARDS THE
OZARK PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE STRENGTHENED
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION TONIGHT WILL BE RESULTANT INCREASE IN
FREEZING PRECIPITATION...A FEW STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL IN STRONGER CORES GIVEN AMOUNT OF MUCAPE
AVAILABLE.
..CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. LACK OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE
SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING IMPULSE ON WV IMAGERY MOVING NEWD
TOWARDS THE REGION FOR SCATTERED...MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE PERIOD.
.CNTRL AND SRN CA...
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPULSE DIGGING SWD INTO NWRN CA THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /-28 TO -30 C AT 500 MB/ WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS LOW
LEVELS WARM THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...COLD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...A SEPARATE AREA OF CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM A
BIT LATER IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE SRN CA COAST AND OVER
THE SRN CA COASTAL MOUNTAINS. IN THIS REGION...TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE
UPLIFT IN WLY FLOW ON SOUTH SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER VORT. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO YIELD SOME HAIL AND PERHAPS A WATERSPOUT OR TWO
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
.EVANS.. 12/08/2007
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