SWODY1
SPC AC 181620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2007
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MOST PRONOUNCED WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. A LOW-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN NWD INTO SOUTHEAST TX
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOIST AXIS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO SUGGESTING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN SE TX WILL NOT
BE GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEN PERCENT CONTOUR.
FARTHER WEST...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 200 TO 300 STATUTE MILES OFF THE COAST OF CA. AS
THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES MAINLY OFF THE
COAST OF CNTRL CA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
.BROYLES.. 12/18/2007
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