Thursday, December 20, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201954
SWODY1
SPC AC 201952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

..LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWD THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...REACHING THE SERN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSES AND TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA FROM LA EWD ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA SUGGEST THE INITIAL MESOLOW THAT MOVED
EWD ACROSS SRN MS HAS OCCLUDED INTO A BROADER AREA OF CIRCULATION
NOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL AL. MEANWHILE...A SECOND MESOLOW HAS
OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST IN SERN MS...WITH
THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EWD THROUGH SWRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND
NRN FL.

PRIOR TO SLY LLJ WEAKENING THIS EVENING...THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
AID IN ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SRN PARTS OF AL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...ONGOING TSTMS /LINEAR STRUCTURES INLAND
AND SUPERCELL MODE CURRENTLY LOCATED OFFSHORE OF THE MS/AL COAST/
ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TSTMS MAY PERSIST EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TONIGHT...BUT
WEAKENING LLJ THIS EVENING AND GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVING
EAST OF BETTER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO GA/NRN FL.

.PETERS.. 12/20/2007

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