SWODY1
SPC AC 150048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..ERN TX/OK AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN TX INTO ERN OK
IN ZONE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. EVENING
SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS ARE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...WITH THE POSITIVE
AREA EXTENDING TO AROUND 350 MB. DESPITE MUCAPES AOB 500
J/KG...STRONG LIFTING OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO THAT AREA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS ERN TX SWD
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...AS MID LEVEL INHIBITION
WEAKENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION...WEAK
INSTABILITY...POOR LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED UPDRAFT PARCELS
SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE IS LOW.
..FL PENINSULA...
A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF OLGA...
LOCATED EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NEWD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. SURFACE HEATING OF MOIST ENVIRONMENT RESULTED IN A
CLUSTER OF STORMS ERUPTING ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD AID IN
THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
..COASTAL WA...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WA WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...500 MB TEMPERATURES FROM
-26 TO -30C...INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL DEPTH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
.IMY.. 12/15/2007
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