SWODY2
SPC AC 101726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/BAJA/NORTHWESTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGER SCALE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE...ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH...ACCELERATES NORTHEAST OF BAJA LATER TODAY. THE LEAD
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z
TUESDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT LIKELY WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY...WITHIN AN ANTICYCLONIC REGIME ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CENTERED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
ATLANTIC...EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONSIDERABLE WARMING/MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED AS A
COLD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS ALREADY GENERALLY TO THE
SOUTH/EAST OF A SLOWLY RETREATING STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER. BUT...IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE NEAR
SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED.
FURTHERMORE...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING LIKELY REMAINING TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EAST OF
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK... LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.
AND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SURFACE FRONT ANTICIPATED ...SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN ZONE OF STEEPER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH/WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...AS THE LEAD
UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT...A
DEEPER COLD AIR SURGE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN
GULF COAST COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.
.KERR.. 12/10/2007
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