SWODY2
SPC AC 201723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY 2
PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS. A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...ONE
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN BC AND THE SECOND DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN CA...
ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY PHASED AND AMPLIFY AS THEY
TRACK SEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY END OF DAY 2. ATTENDANT
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE PLAINS REGION ON FRIDAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY SWWD THROUGH LOWER MO VALLEY TO CENTRAL/ERN OK AND W TX BY
12Z SATURDAY. SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO MID MO VALLEY REGION FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS. MODELS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRESENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WAA AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SRN TROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 22/09Z
WITHIN AXIS OF MOIST RETURN FLOW MAINLY ACROSS E TX. LACK OF STRONG
FORCING...PRESENCE OF CAPPING INVERSION AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FARTHER E...LOWER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
THE SERN STATES AT 12Z FRIDAY AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE CENTERED IN NRN FL/ SRN GA AT
START OF PERIOD WILL ALSO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SERN GA INTO NRN/WRN FL WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO GREATER FORCING MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY. WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
.PETERS.. 12/20/2007
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