SWODY3
SPC AC 050727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST WED DEC 05 2007
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE
CONCERNING THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY 12Z FRIDAY. BUT...MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
THAT THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH...DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY IN A
POSITIVELY TILTED FASHION ACROSS CALIFORNIA/THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN/BAJA AND THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AND...THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
..WEST OF ROCKIES...
SCATTERED CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL ACCOMPANY REMNANTS OF LEAD SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU
REGION. THE GFS SEEMS TO MAINTAIN STRONGER FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY FRIDAY. BUT...EVEN WITH
THIS SOLUTION...MAXIMUM DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE VERY WEAK.
AND...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..EAST OF ROCKIES...
A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/AND GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY CAPPED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TIED TO THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE...OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
.KERR.. 12/05/2007
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