SWODY3
SPC AC 130807
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND SPECTRAL MODELS PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DAY 2 THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS STILL EXIST. PREFER THESE
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NAM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC OR MID
ATLANTIC COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN/CONSOLIDATE AS
IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
..GULF COAST THROUGH FL...
LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY AS VORT MAX EJECTS NEWD
FROM BASE OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY
SHIFT INLAND ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL AREA. GIVEN TENDENCY
FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO SHIFT AWAY FROM WARM SECTOR...INLAND MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL RESIDE
OVER PARTS OF FL SOUTH OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND MAY ADVECT NWD INTO
MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FL
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE...MAINLY OVER
CNTRL AND NRN FL AS A MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH FL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
.DIAL.. 12/13/2007
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