SWOD48
SPC AC 040852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CST TUE DEC 04 2007
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SLOW MOVING UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/BAJA/NORTHWESTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION...UPSTREAM OF A SEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHICH MAY ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BENEATH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW
REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES. AND...THIS
WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE OHIO VALLEY.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...HOWEVER...CONCERNING THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH...AND ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT
ONLY WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND...PERHAPS
..WINTER WEATHER...THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARDS. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. REGARDLESS...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
NEGLIGIBLE...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
.KERR.. 12/04/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment