SWOD48
SPC AC 080854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST SAT DEC 08 2007
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES
WILL FINALLY EJECT EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS BY THURSDAY THEN
CONTINUE NEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY FRIDAY DAY 6. PRIMARY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ON COOL SIDE OF COLD FRONT. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN POST FRONTAL ZONE...WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
FROM SRN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY DAY 4 INTO
THURSDAY DAY 5. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL EXTENDED OUTLOOK A THIS
TIME.
.DIAL.. 12/08/2007
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