SWOD48
SPC AC 100857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
..DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
THURSDAY DAY 4. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD AND OFFSHORE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SERN STATES
IN ITS WAKE. MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY 5. THE
ECMWF AMPLIFIES A TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S. AND MOVES IT THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE IT INDUCES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
AND TRIES TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY NWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. GFS PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND
MAINTAINS OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A FLIP
FLOP FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN. GIVEN THESE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND AN
INCREASE IN DISPERSION OF THE MREF MEMBERS BY THE END OF DAY 5...
OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LOW WITH THIS PATTERN. IN EITHER CASE IT
APPEARS MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
.DIAL.. 12/10/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment