SWOD48
SPC AC 200848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
..DISCUSSION...
STRONG TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CONUS -- PER LATEST DAY-3 OUTLOOK --
IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY THEREAFTER WITH CONSOLIDATED NRN STREAM LOW
MOVING EWD OVER GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS FCST
TO SWEEP ACROSS MOST OF GULF...FOLLOWED BY CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE
THAT RENDERS AIR MASS TOO STABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. MOST MREF MEMBERS...AS WELL AS OPERATIONAL
SPECTRAL AND ECMWF...FOLLOW THAT SYSTEM WITH SERIES OF WELL-DEFINED
BUT RATHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES IN NWLY-WNWLY FLOW...ON TRACK
ROUGHLY FROM PACIFIC NW TO S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN PROGGED SFC FRONTAL/CYCLOGENETIC PROCESSES WITH
THESE SYSTEMS...AND RELATED CONCERNS ABOUT RETURN FLOW
QUALITY...PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL SVR FCST ATTM.
.EDWARDS.. 12/20/2007
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