SWOD48
SPC AC 250937
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2007
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF STRONG
TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AND THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS
THE ERN STATES. A GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE MEAN RIDGE MOVING EWD
INTO THE WRN STATES AND THE MEAN TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN MOVING STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON DAYS 5-6
/SATURDAY DECEMBER 29 AND SUNDAY DECEMBER 30/...ACCOMPANIED BY A
GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE LOW LIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WITH
SECONDARY LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SERN STATES AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...CMC
GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER/ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH...AND GEFS/NAEFS
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING SPREAD IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAY 5. THUS WILL NOT DELINEATE
A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THIS TIME AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW PREDICTABILITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
.WEISS.. 12/25/2007
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