SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091141
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-091645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CST SUN DEC 09 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MO/CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST
OH/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 091141Z - 091645Z
MAINLY FREEZING RAIN /WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS/ WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM CENTRAL MO AND
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER
MI/NORTHWEST OH THIS MORNING. THIS INCLUDES A CORRIDOR FROM
NEAR/NORTH OF ST LOUIS TO SPRINGFIELD/PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON/CHAMPAIGN
IL TO THE LAFAYETTE/LOGANSPORT/GOSHEN/FORT WAYNE INDIANA AREAS.
WITHIN AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A DOWNSTREAM SPREAD OF
EXISTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD INTO THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST OH/FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MI THROUGH MID MORNING. PREDAWN SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES WET
BULB 32F LINE RUNNING LARGELY PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 44 IN
MO...WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY STEADY-STATE JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 FROM ST LOUIS TO INDIANAPOLIS TO DAYTON OH. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE QUITE COMMON AS A SHALLOW /LESS THAN 1
KM/ COLD AIRMASS EXISTS BENEATH AN ELEVATED WARM/POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION VIA A MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NAM/GFS/RUC
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PRECIP-TYPE
ALGORITHMS...LATEST /03Z/ SREF GUIDANCE LENDS STRONG SUPPORT FOR A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD AND DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
THROUGH 18Z. CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
THE MORNING.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT/CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALOFT WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MOST UNSTABLE CAPE /PER EVENING
OBSERVED RAOBS AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS/ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING. WHILE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD REMAIN DOMINANT IN MOST
LOCALES...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO PROMOTE OCCASIONAL
SLEET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
.GUYER.. 12/09/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
41568739 41988519 41908363 40898377 40328476 40148694
39848820 39438901 38519037 37749212 38879287 39259272
39909204 40629059
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