MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2201

ACUS11 KWNS 101224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101223
OKZ000-TXZ000-101630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX/SW AND CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 101223Z - 101630Z

AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND CNTRL OKLAHOMA.
A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE UP TO .05 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA CURRENTLY SHOW AND AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
TX. THIS CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A POCKET OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SAMPLED BY THE MAF 12Z SOUNDING WITH MUCAPE VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY AND WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF A
SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
NWRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTO SOUTHWEST OK AND CNTRL OK WHERE
WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE THE GREATEST. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN NW TX. THIS MAY BE AN
INDICATION OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW
WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO .05 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN.

.BROYLES.. 12/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

33059981 32950040 33240110 33500131 33890127 34310099
34780047 35409949 35779881 36149812 36329764 36379732
36289682 35889658 35249687 34849723 34199803 33769861
33319934

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