SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101236
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK/FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MO AND SOUTHWEST IL
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 101236Z - 101730Z
STEADY FREEZING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM NORTHEAST OK/FAR SOUTHEAST KS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL...LARGELY CENTERED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR /WITHIN 50 MILES/. ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING /ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES/ IN AREAS FROM NEAR TULSA OK TO SPRINGFIELD/ROLLA/ST LOUIS
MO.
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME COINCIDENT WITH
ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A RELATIVELY FOCUSED
CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG THE I-44 VICINITY
FROM NORTHEAST OK TO NEAR THE ST LOUIS METRO. THE SURFACE WET BULB
32F LINE HAS FLUCTUATED LITTLE THROUGH DAYBREAK...RUNNING ALMOST
PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO I-44 APPROXIMATELY 50 MILES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
VERY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER 00Z RAOB...THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM SPRINGFIELD MO WELL-SAMPLES THE SHALLOW /AROUND 500M/
SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS THAT RESIDES BENEATH A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER
BASED BETWEEN 850-900 MB. CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND
LATEST 06Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE...A SIMILAR FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO
SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY LINGERING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SPRINGFIELD VICINITY TO NEAR ST
LOUIS/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST IL UNTIL AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH WANING WITH
NORTHEAST EXTENT ACROSS MO...AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS/LOCALLY ENHANCED FREEZING RAIN RATES THROUGH AT LEAST
MID MORNING. WHILE PERHAPS SLIGHTLY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
WARMING AND THE TIMING THEREOF...06Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS/03Z SREF
GUIDANCE LARGELY SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR/ABOVE 32F IN MOST AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR BY
AROUND 18Z...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES ALSO WANING THEREAFTER.
.GUYER.. 12/10/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
39149015 38248990 36619371 36079465 35999515 36429561
37369527 37439519 38249353
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