Monday, December 10, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2203

ACUS11 KWNS 101808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101808
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CST MON DEC 10 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL AND WRN OK INTO THE ERN PARTS
OF TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 101808Z - 102145Z

FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL AND NERN OK...WITH THE GREATEST
RATES /0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES PER 3 HOUR/ DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING NWD
INTO THE REST OF THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WEST CENTRAL/NWRN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED TSTMS.

TREND IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INDICATED
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 32 F FROM PARTS OF SW THROUGH
CENTRAL TO NE OK. 15Z RUC SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE NWD FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL
RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE TO SW/WEST CENTRAL OK. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND NWD IN RESPONSE TO
UVVS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL JET SPREADING
ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO/SWRN
STATES. LIFT ACROSS ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL OK
WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCREASING WAA ALONG STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ
DEVELOPING INTO THIS REGION. 15Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM REESE CENTER
IN WEST CENTRAL TX SHOWED A STRONG ELEVATED WARM LAYER /850-670 MB/
WITH MUCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG AND PW VALUES JUST UNDER 1 INCH
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL ATOP SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER
PRODUCING ENHANCED FREEZING RAINFALL RATES.

.PETERS.. 12/10/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

34529900 34339972 34210036 34330128 34600161 35210171
35730154 36620149 37050140 37109913 37069679 36999591
36319574 35839587 35449687 35019760 34649875

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