Thursday, December 13, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

ACUS11 KWNS 131312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131311 COR
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131311Z - 131645Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PA THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION FROM CNTRL PA EWD TO NRN NJ WHERE ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
INCREASED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL PA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF STRONG PVA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RAPID INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT JET LOCATED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS NRN PA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVER THE 1 TO 3 HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM LAYER NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH
MID-MORNING FROM PITTSBURG PA EWD TO THE NEW YORK/NEWARK AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN PERSIST.

.BROYLES.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

40507493 40207770 40897958 41947917 42587735 42637492
42447295 41817265 41287306

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