SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200930
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-201100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...UPR TX COAST...SABINE RVR VLY...SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 200930Z - 201100Z
A WEAK LEAD MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE PARENT SRN PLAINS IMPULSE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE AR OZARKS THROUGH 12Z. ATTENDANT 1011
MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER ECNTRL TX WITH TEMPORAL VEERING OF THE
LOW/MID-LVL WIND PROFILES SWWD IN AREAS EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT. THE
LOW WILL LIKELY RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE ARKLATEX BY 12Z WHERE CURRENT
MAX IN PRESSURE FALLS ARE LOCATED. AS THIS OCCURS...MID-UPR 60S SFC
DEW POINTS WILL SURGE NWD ALONG THE UPR TX COAST INTO THE SABINE VLY
AND SWRN LA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ FOCUSES
FROM NEAR/E OF HOUSTON NEWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
CURRENT TSTMS DEVELOPING VCNTY KLFK SEEM TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE NWD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND MAY BE ROOTED SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE SFC TO
ATTAIN MAXIMUM SRH IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VEERING
FROM SFC THROUGH 3 KM. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY AS THE LOW/MID-LVL FLOW CONTINUES
TO VEER WITH TIME THROUGH DAYBREAK. THUS...ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE SABINE RVR VLY.
OTHERWISE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR OTHER
ELEVATED STORMS TO ATTAIN SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF ERN TX AND CNTRL/NRN LA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT...STORMS THROUGH CNTRL LA MAY
PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER WORKS NWD WITH
TIME THIS MORNING.
.RACY.. 12/20/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
29899619 33359486 32469248 30329236 29029364 28629470
29139624
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment