SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221816
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-222215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN AND NRN MO AND SERN IA
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 221816Z - 222215Z
SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL OCCUR ACROSS ERN KS AND
EXPAND INTO NWRN MO AND SRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A CNU-MKC-OTM LINE...BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DEEPENS FROM THE NW.
WV IMAGERY INDICATED AN INTENSE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK AT NOON TIME...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD
INTO FAR NERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL IN NRN
TX/SERN OK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD INTO NWRN AR AND SRN MO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS ERN
KS/NWRN MO/SRN IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW THAT MUCAPES AROUND 100 J/KG WILL EXIST BETWEEN 700 AND
300 MB...INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES
AT TIMES. ALSO...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND ACCELERATES
NEWD FROM FAR NERN OK INTO SRN MO...TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN NLY WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND BLOWING SNOW. SOUNDINGS SHOWING
A WEAK WARM NOSE AROUND 850 MB WILL RESULT IN SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
EAST OF CNU-MKC-OTM LINE...BUT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO
SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS 850 MB WARM NOSE IS GRADUALLY
ELIMINATED.
.IMY.. 12/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
41239271 40949167 39029245 36929478 36949652 37439693
40199523 41319364
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