SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231911
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY...NRN DELMARVA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 231911Z - 232045Z
LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WRN PA AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE AS THESE LINES
MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN PA...CENTRAL NY AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR
SOUTH AS NRN DELMARVA. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS A POSSIBLE SOON.
CONVECTION IN WRN PA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXTREME WITH 50-70 KT
WINDS LOCATED LESS THAN 1 KM ABOVE THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...THE
WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE PREDOMINATELY SLY...WHICH IS
PARALLEL TO THE N-S ORIENTED LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...A 100 KT JET
STREAK LOCATED AT 500 MB WAS LOCATED OVER KY AT NOON AND IS FORECAST
TO NOT ONLY INCREASE THE MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...BUT ALSO AID IN
VEERING THE WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MORE WLY AND
PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE SEGMENTS. THE WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE THE
LINE SEGMENTS MORE RAPIDLY EWD AND ALSO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT/DAMAGING WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THE
JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN WRN PA BY 21Z...WITH INCREASED
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH LINE OF CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE SOON.
DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE LINE SEGMENTS...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CONVECTION AND ONLY VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
.IMY.. 12/23/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...
39417534 39197652 39467789 40877820 43037802 43907741
44447595 44147468 42587449 40517485
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