SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262034
LAZ000-262200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CST WED DEC 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262034Z - 262200Z
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SERN LA COAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER
WATCH.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER WRN LA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM THE LOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A 60
KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXISTS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS INCREASED SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S F FROM MORGAN CITY LA ESEWD TO THE MS
RIVER DELTA. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT
IN EAST TX ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRYSLOT
ADVANCING EWD ACROSS SW LA. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH AND RISING SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE SE LA COAST MAY
RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN
SCNTRL LA. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.0 C/KM MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND
HAIL.
.BROYLES.. 12/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
29039073 29109136 29259167 29569170 29819150 29759098
29679036 29668989 29478965 29208971 29068981 28999020
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